AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA
ABSTRACT
This study examined agricultural output and economic development in Nigeria. In light of the empirical review and other discussions, a number of questions arose as to whether there is relationship between agricultural output and economic development in Nigeria. Using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression technique with the aid of computer software, the empirical findings revealed among other things that there is a relationship between agricultural output and economic development in Nigeria. We recommended that, government should evolve policies toward diversifying the economy and encouraged the campaign for improvements in the non-oil sectors of the economy especially agricultural.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
Background to the Study                    
Statement of the Research Problem             
Objective of the Study                         
Research Hypotheses                         
Scope of the Study                    
Significance of the Study                    
Methodology of the Study                    
Limitation of the Study                    
References                            
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW
Introduction                         
Agriculture, Economic Development and Growth in Nigeria    11
Agricultural Sector Policies and Programmes     
Contributions of Agriculture to Economic Development in
Nigeria                                 
Theoretical and Empirical Evidence         
Agricultural and Industrial Production: Conceptual Issues
Role of Agricultural and Industrial Production in
Economic Development                     
Agricultural and Industrial Production in Nigeria        
Financing Agriculture and Industry in Nigeria            
References                            
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHOD
Introduction                                 
The Research Design                        
Sources of Data Collection                        
The Population of the Study                    
Model Specification                         
Method of Data Analysis                    
CHAPTER FOUR: DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS
4.1    Introduction                            
4.2    Presentation and Analysis of Results            
Test of Hypotheses                        
CHAPTER FIVE:    SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Introduction                             
Summary of the Finding                     
Recommendations                            
Conclusion                                    
Bibliography                                 
Appendix                                 
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
Agriculture sector is the key sector in the Nigerian economy. This sector is the ‘brain box’ of the Nigerian economy. Agricultural sector is vital source of raw materials needed for the agro allied industries, especially Beverages Company, food and exports. It was the cornerstone of the economy in the 1960s and early 1970s (Umaru and Zubairu, 2012).
Nigeria was heavily dependent on agriculture, which was the sector accounting for more than 40 percent of the Pre-1973 GDP. It was the major source of funds for implementing the first development plan, 1962-1968. Within a decade up to 1983 however, agricultural output in Nigeria declined to 1.9 percent and export fell to 7.9 percent. Agricultural imports as a share of the total imports rose from 3 percent in the late 1960s to 7 percent in the early 1980s. Nigeria’s unfavorable agricultural development resulted from the loss of compositeness among farm exports as the real values of the Nigerian Naira appreciated substantially from 1970 to 1972 and from 1982 to 1983. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria report, “export-oriented agriculture declined from 42 per cent of the total export in 1970 to less than 3 per cent in 1985.”
The sector has suffered from years of mismanagement, and inconsistency in the government policies and the era of huge oil revenues has also contributed in the neglect of the agricultural sector. Major agricultural products are Cassava, corn, millet, cocoa, palm oil, groundnuts, rice, rubber, sorghum, yam, and livestock production. The sector still accounts for over 26.8percent of GDP and two thirds of employments. Nigerian is no longer a major exporter of cocoa, cotton, groundnuts, rubber and palm oil (Evbuomvom, G. O, 2003).
The continuous decline in the agricultural sector despite huge investments in the sector, which among others include the establishment of River basins and Rural Development Authorities, the Agricultural Development programmes, ADP, (funded jointly by the World Bank and the federating Units in Nigeria), and more than 20 Agricultural Research Institutes. Over the years, especially in the early 1980s and late 1980s, modest programmes were evolved: the Obasango’s Operation Feed the Nation (OFN), Shagari’s Green revolution, and most recently, Obasango’s agricultural programmes in 2004-2005, prominent was the cassava projects and much attention given to the sector. During the 2007, President Yar Adua’s 7 point agenda also places emphasis on Food security. Despite all these, agriculture has failed to keep pace with Nigeria’s rapid population growth. Nigeria once exporter of food, now relies on imports to sustain its growing population.
STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM
Agricultural sector is seen as an engine that contributes to the growth of the overall economy of Nigeria, despite these efforts the sector is still characterized with low yields, low level of inputs and limited areas under cultivation due to government dependence on mono-cultural economy based on oil.
Economic history provides us with ample evidence that agricultural revolution is a fundamental pre-condition for economic growth, especially in developing countries (Woolf and Jones, 1969; Oluwasanmi, 1966; Eicher and Witt, 1964). Ukeji (2003) submits that in the 1960’s, agriculture contributed up to 64% to the total GDP but gradually declined in the 70’s to 48% and it continues in 1980 to 20% and 19% in 1985, this was as a result of oil glut of the 1980’s. Historically, the root of the crises in the Nigerian economy lies in the neglect of the agricultural sector by the Federal Government towards developing dependence on a mono-cultural economy based on oil.
Against this backdrop, the following research questions are raised:
What is the relationship between agricultural output and domestic savings?
What is the relationship between agricultural output and foreign direct investment on agricultural?
What is the relationship between agricultural output and government expenditure on agricultural?
OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
The broad objective of this study if to examine agricultural output and per capita incomes in Nigeria.
The specific objectives are:
To determine the relationship between agricultural output and per capita incomes.
To examine the relationship between agricultural output and government expenditure on agriculture.
RESEARCH HYPOTHESES
The hypothesis for this study is;
Hypothesis I
H0:    There is no relationship between agricultural output and per capita incomes.
H1:    There is a relationship between agricultural output and per capita incomes.
Hypothesis II
H0:    There is no relationship between agricultural output and government expenditure on agriculture.
H1:    There is a relationship between agricultural output and government expenditure on agriculture.
SCOPE OF THE STUDY
It is well known fact around the globe that, there is no limitation to knowledge. As a result of the above fact, the scope of this research will be limited to the Nigerian economy vis-à-vis agricultural output and per capital incomes.
Temporary or in term of time series, a period of 41 years is used i.e. 1980 to 2011 using some macroeconomic variables as means of assessing agricultural output and per capital incomes.
Geographically, the study will be conducted in Benin City, Edo State.
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
There are several compelling reasons for undertaking this study. It will update existing body of knowledge by going a step forward in filling many of the obvious gaps in the controversy of agricultural output and per capita incomes of developing and emerging economies (Nigeria inclusive).
It is therefore expected that the study findings will be of immense benefit to policy makers, government regulatory agencies, etc. it will also prove very useful to researchers as well as members of the academia.
Besides, the findings of this study will lay the foundation for other academia and research students (both home and abroad) to know what evidence exist in emerging economies concerning the agricultural output and per capita incomes.
METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY
The study will involve the use of secondary data, the data will be obtained from various issues of the CBN statistic bulletins and other sources of data relevant to the study.
The data obtained will be analyzed using the regression analysis from which conclusion will be drawn on the basic of the estimated model.
LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
In the course of carryout this study, the researcher encountered some constraints such as finance and time.
Financial Constraints: Finance is largely needed to tour wider regions or location just to gather data for processing. But this was not adequately available to sufficiently meet the purpose of this study.
Time Constraints: This study coincided with the first and second semester academic demands which made it enormously tasking. More time would have been devoted to critically evaluate the impact of the capital market on Nigerian economy using some basic market indicators.
REFERENCES
Umaru, A. and Zubairu, A. A. (2012) An Empirical Analysis of the Contribution of Agriculture and Petroleum Sector to the Growth and Development of the Nigerian Economy from 1960-2010, International J. Soc. Sci. & Education, 2(4): 758 – 769.
Evbuomvom, G.O et al (2003), Agricultural Development: Issues of sustainability, CBN Publication, Abuja Nigeria.pp743-745.