AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA 1980 to 2013
ABSTRACT
    The study primarily aimed at examining the impact of Agricultural output on the development of the Nigerian economy. The OLS method of estimation was employed to find out if there exist a significant and positive relationship between Agricultural output and Economic Development in Nigeria. Data for the analysis were sourced from various issues of CBN statistical Bulletin covering a timeframe of 1980 to 2013. Economic Development was proxied by Real Gross Domestic Product which represented the dependent variable in the model. The main explanatory variable was Output from the Agricultural Sector. Other explanatory variables that formed the control variables were Agricultural export (AGX), Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Labour Force Participation (LFP) and Gross Investment (INV). The result of the regression shows that there actually exist a significant positive relationship between Agricultural output and Economic Development in Nigeria.
    The findings from the analysis reveal that there exist a significant direct relationship between Agricultural Output and Economic Development in Nigeria. Agricultural export also has a direct significant impact on Economic Development in Nigeria. There exist a direct and significant relationship between Index of Industrial Production and Economic Development in Nigeria. There also exist a significant direct relationship between Gross investment and Economic Development in Nigeria. While Labour force has an insignificant inverse relationship with Economic Development, Agricultural output, Agricultural export, Industrial production and Gross Investment are a significant and major determinants of Economic Growth and Development in Nigeria.
    The study recommends among others that policy that is agricultural sector bias is inevitable if the country must move forward in terms of sustainable Economic Development. Also, the high correlation between Agricultural output and economic development in Nigeria is also a pointer to the importance of diversifying the production base of Nigerian economy.
TABLE OF CONTENT
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
Background to Study                
Statement of the Research Problem        
Objective of the Study                    
Hypotheses of the Study                
1.5    Significance of the Study            
1.6    Scope of the Study                    
1.7    Limitation of the Study                    
CHAPTER TW0: LITERATURE REVIEW
Agriculture is central in the provision of the
 nation’s food and industrial situations.         
2.2    Brief Overview of Agriculture and
The Nigerian Economy             
The Place of Agriculture In Sustainable
    Economic Development                
2.4    Agriculture and Capital Investments    
2.5    Importance of Agricultural Productivity        
2.6    Relevance of Food Security In Nation        
2.7    What is Agricultural Development?         
2.8    Conditions for Agricultural Development         
2.9    Impediments to Agricultural Development     
2.10    What is Economic Development?             
2.11    What is Technological Development?         
2.12    Theoretical Framework                        
2.13    Empirical Evidence                     
CHAPTER THREE: METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY
3.1    Introduction                         
3.2     Theoretical Framework for Model            
3.3     Model Specification                    
3.4     Estimation Procedure and Data Source        
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF DATA
4.1    Introductions                        
4.2    Analysis of the Regression Result            
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, RECOMMENDATION AND
            CONCLUSION
5.1     Summary of Findings                    
5.2     Recommendations                        
5.3     Conclusion                            
    References                         
    Appendix                         
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1    BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
    It is not gain saying the fact that agricultural output really play important role in economic development of a country. This has been the consensus views of so many researchers across the globe today.For instance, Johnston and Mellor (1961) observe that agriculture contributes to economic growth and development through five inter-sectorial linkages. The sectors are linked via: (i) supply of surplus labor to firms in the industrial sector; (ii) supply of food for domestic consumption; (iii) provision of market for industrial output; (iv) supply of domestic savings for industrial investment; and (v) supply of foreign exchange from agricultural export earnings to finance import of intermediate and capital goods. In addition to these five direct market-based linkages, Timmer (1995) also emphasized the importance of indirect non-market linkages that improves the quality of the major production factors (labor and capital). He observes that agriculture indirectly contributes to economic growth via its provision of better caloric nutrient intake by the poor, food availability, food price stability, and poverty reduction. He argued that the role of agriculture has been underestimated because of data limitations that preclude explicit quantitative analyses of the indirect effects of agriculture’s contributions to capital and labor efficiency and total factor productivity.
    Nigeria ranks twenty fifth worldwide and first in Africa in farm output.Agriculture has suffered from years of mismanagement, inconsistent and poorly conceived government policies, neglect and the lack of basic infrastructure and low productivity reflecting reliance on antiquated methods.. Still, the sector accounts for over 26.8% of GDP and two-thirds of employment. Nigeria is no longer a major exporter of cocoa, groundnuts (peanuts), rubber, and palm oil. Cocoa production, mostly from obsolete varieties and overage trees, is stagnant at around 180,000 tons annually; 25 years ago it was 300,000 tons. Thus, agriculture has failed to keep pace with Nigeria's rapid population growth, so that the country, which once exported food, now relies on imports to sustain itself.Therefore, realizing the Nigeria’s guess for vision 20-20-20, the place of agricultural output  in this regard becomes very relevant, and the Nigeria government must ensure that agriculture regain its pride of place in the drive for rapid economic growth and development of the country otherwise, the vision will simply be a mirage.
1.2    STATEMENT OF THE RESEARCH PROBLEM  
    The place of agriculture in economic growth and development of any nation cannot be over emphasized. It is a general consensus that agricultural output plays a major role in the process of economic growth of a country.According  toTimmer (2002) and World Bank (2008), agriculture has contributed to economic growth and development in several ways such as poverty reduction, provision of foods, employments to the timid population and others. With the trend of trade liberalization, agricultural export can bring important sources of income for countries, especially the developing ones. A large proportion of the poor are often agriculture-based, and agricultural growth can be a key to pro-poor growth and poverty alleviation (Andersen and Lorch 1995; UNDP 1997; Irz et al. 2001; World Bank 2008).
    However, there are other views that agriculture has not really contributed to economic growth and development of a country. For instance, the studies ofCoxhead and Warr (1991), Datt and Ravallion (1996), and Irz et al.(2001) established a  negative relationship between agricultural growth and poverty and that agriculture is not always a panacea for poverty reduction and is always associated with economic and natural risks. The poor farmers, especially in developing countries are most vulnerable to these risks.A sudden global shock can easily affect a country that heavily relied on agricultural exports, and any decrease in prices can quickly push the poor households who are in tradable agriculture into losses and poverty. Natural risks such as calamity and diseases can result in heavy loss for agricultural households. In addition, the industrial and service sectors tend to grow more quickly than the agricultural sector in the long run. According to the findings of Lanjouw and Lanjouw (1995) and Ruben and Van den Berg, 2001), the shrinking of agriculture relative to industry and service has been observed in both developed and developing countries. The non-farm employment and business have been proved to be an effective way to increase household income and reduce poverty rather than agricultural output.
    Therefore, considering the above conflicting views, it is evidence that there is a problem, a knowledge gap that needed to be filled as to whether agricultural output actually enhances economic growth and development of a country. It is in the light of these that the study seeks to provide answers to the following research questions:
Does agricultural output actually have any impact on economic growth and development of Nigeria?
What is the relationship between agricultural exportsand per capita income in Nigeria?
1.3        OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
       The main objectives of the study are to:
I.    Examine the impact of agricultural output on the development of the Nigerian economy over time.
    HYPOTHESIS OF THE STUDY
The hypothesis to be tested in this study is:
I.    Agricultural output does not affecteconomic developmentin Nigeria.
SIGNIFICANCE  OF STUDY
    The study will be very relevant to the government and policy makers in Nigeria, as it will provide them useful information on agricultural output and per capita income in formulating appropriate policies and programmes on the agricultural sector of the economy that will in turn enhance income per capita of the people and the growth of the economy at large.
Secondly, the study will also be very useful to academia, researchers, students of agricultural sciences, finance, economics and all allied disciplines, as it will provide them strong data base to carry out further studies in the same area, if they so wish.
1.6    SCOPE OF STUDY
    The study covers a period of twenty eight years (1986 to 2013). Data shall be sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin (2013).
1.7    LIMITATION OF THE STUDY
    The limitations of the study are two in nature.  The time frame was not enough to actually carry a more detailed research that the study deserves. Also, data accuracy and reliability of the source of data might affect the overall result of the study. We have nevertheless ensuredthat the probable errors are minimal and hence assure more reliable results.