THE CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF THE ROLE OF PLANNING AND FORECASTING IN BUSINESS ORGANISATION
(A CASE STUDY OF EASTERN SHOP NIGERIA LIMITED OGUI ENUGU, ENUGU STATE)
ABSTRACT
          The research was conducted mainly to examine the positive and negatives effects of not making good use of planning and forecasting in the business administration of an organization.   For effective research on this topic THE ROLE OF PLANNING AND FORECASTING IN BUSINESS ORGANISATION both primary and secondary data were used to elicit information from sample studied, the primary source of data were response from the personal interviews, while secondary source from text-books on business management and administration and periodicals.  
          Twenty-five persons were interviewed as the sample of the staff and management of EASTERN SHOP NIGERIA LTD.  The data analysis was based on oral interview I had with the staff of EASTERN SHOP (twenty-five).   The major findings are as follows:
          The planning and forecasting gules go ahead order to any individual, organization that is going into business to make judicious use of forecasting and planning and forecasting is aids to correct mismanagement in business organization.
          Poor forecasting attitude and in adequate planning poor integration of forecasting and planning in running of business organization.
          Problem of in-experience in running of organization as a result of making use of sentiment, instead of strategy planning.
Problem of business is also noticed to be an issue of planning on daily basis instead of medium term and long term planning and forecasting basis.
          Problem arises because management “organization” believes that planning is not important, even if they believed that it is inborn and endowed from birth and inclination.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE:   INTRODUCTION
1.1        Background of the Subject Matter
1.2        Problems Association with the Subject Matter
1.3        The Problem the Study will be Concerned with
1.4         The Importance of Study
1.5        Definition of Important Terms
1.6        References
 CHAPTER TWO:   LETERATURE REVIEW
2.1        The Origin of the Subject Matter
2.2        Schools of Thought Within the Subject Area.
2.3        The School of Thought Relevant to the Subject Matter
2.4        Difference Methods of Studying the Problem
2.5        Summary
2.6        References
CHAPTER THREE:        CONCLUSION
3.1        Data Presentation
3.2        Analysis of the Data
3.3        Recommendation
3.4        Conclusion
3.5        References
CHAPTER ONE
 INTRODUCTION
Andreas Faludi states that “Planning and Forecasting” is the “Queen” mother function of management (organization) and that if planning and forecasting fail, what/who will you direct, control, budget, staff, co-ordinate or organize rather than failure and shame”.
          Again he state that “Theories provide explanations, explanations are response to state of tension resulting from observing unexpected events (Tonlinin (1960).   Planning and forecasting present efforts to reduce surprise caused by such events by giving practicable accounts of how they came about”.
WHAT IS PLANNING AND FORECASTING?
FORECASTING:
          Forecasting is preparing of an organizations future objectives and its current material and personnel inventory, the general or departmental manager make an estimate of the current material and human resources that will be able to do in the future and how many more human and material resources the organization must line to meet its goods (Needle 1979 : 178).   Any business organization without element of forecasting is like driving a car blind-folded and being directed by a man looking out through the lack-window.
          Further more, forecasting is prediction, it is an effort by enterprises to know what the future holds for them. Henry Fayol speaks of prevalence as the essence of management.    According to Fayol “This looking ahead include both assessing the future and making provision for it.   Modern business management has become a complex activity and so there is the need for adequate forecasting.   The need for adequate forecasting is apparent from the key role it plays in planning.
          KOONTZ et el stated that “as influence in plans of the entire environment outside the enterprise has come to be increasingly recognizes forecasting of the environment has risen in importance”.
          The role of forecasting in business organization is to important that it must be adopted by managers.   The making of forecasting and their review by manager compel their king ahead looking to the future and providing for it.   Also the very act of forecasting may disclose areas where necessary control is lacking.   
PLANNNING:
          Andrees Faludi state “mains under standing of this world and his ability to act in it, depends on his constructing an imaginary in his own mind.   This applies equally well to the planner’s understanding of himself and his operation”.   Planning in its simplest meaning is the determination of anything in advance of action.
          Planning is defined by KOONTZ O. DONNCCL as “deciding in advance what to be do it, and why it should be done”
          Planning bridges the gap from where we are to where we want to go planning can also be defined as “ a pre-determined cause or action the at helps to provide purpose and direction for members of an enterprise.
          In designing an environment for the effective performance of individuals working together in groups, the must essential teak is to see that purpose and objective, and method of attaining them are clearly understood.
          Planning is the first function of a manager it is necessary if anything or activities are to reach the serviced goal.   Through planning a manager can approach predetermined objective rationally.  All the work of an executive, whether he knows it or not, is some, how connected with the unfolding of a plan.   In identifying the role of planning in business organization, Koontz et al states that “we are in an economic, technological, social and poetical era in which planning like other function of managers, has become requites for enterprise survival”.
          Planning is unique in that it established the objective necessary for all group efforts.  Planning and forecasting are important tools of company management and decision making as they assist in the appraisal of investment project, in the analysis, measurement and improvement of current marketing strategy and manpower planning and in the identification and development of new products and new market.   Further they promote and facilitate the proper functioning of the many aspects of company’s activities.    Planning and forecasting are compliment parts that make a specified whole.   Writing also in this concept, KOONTZ O. Donncil states that, “forecasting especially where participated through out the organization, may help to unity and co-ordinate plans.   By focusing attention on the future, it assists in bringing a singleness of purpose to planning”
1.1       BACKGROUND OF THE SUBJECT MATTER
The popular super market called EASTERN SHOP was established in May 28, 1960.   Almost five (5) months after the independence of this country.   This took place at Ogui Road, Enugu.   Then under Eastern region new Enugu State, which is formerly known as the headquarters of Eastern Nigeria.   The super market situates opposite Nnamdi Azikwe Stadium and around is are other big shops like Bobbles, ABC Transport etc. the amazing thing that concerns this shop is that the manager or the sole proprietor is a family man, that had engage in other business and finally settle in opening a big supermarket.   He literal into the business with little or no experience in the field of supermarket business.
Organically, the name of managing director of the supermarket is chief M. O. Okoli Ozozulu Agulu of Agulu in Aniocha Local Government Area of Anambra State.   He is one of the power members of Enugu State Association of supermarkets.   This was to enable him to curb some of the problems that he is facing through as result of poor forecasting and planning in business.   The supermarket has other branches in Lagos, and Onitsha.  In the establishment he employed general operation manager (G.O.M) who sees to the running of the business.   The company also has shop manger who directs the affairs of cashier, store manager and restaurant departments and report to the G.O.M Eastern Shop is made up of five (department/units.
•Accounting department
•Cash department
•Stores department
•Restaurant department
•Cold room department
Eastern shop deals mostly on consumer goods like electronics, wears, lamed foods, body wears toys etc.
The problem of proper planning and forecasting is among the major problem that limits the more expansion of the business these can be clearly seen from an adage that says, that business is full of risks”.   Besides, the researcher was able to note that the sum of N500 naira was used as initial capital of the business and today the property of the business is on millions and it has more than twenty people as employees.   This simply means that it is no longer small on a scale business.   But as a result of inadequate application of good understanding, in the techniques of forecasting and planning integration in business, it has grown to multi-chain of supermarkets.   It is now losing customers to its several competitors. Based on the above promising and manifesting problem, this makes the researcher to embark on the project topic to help the present situation that is facing the business.   
1.2       PROBLEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBJECT
MATTER
          It has obviously been proved that he, who fails to plan, plans to fails.   And it is also believed that he who fails to put records and recognizance of past event should not predict/forecast future.    If anybody that fails to envisage the future is bound to crash.
          Planning and forecasting have been integrated to be wonderful tools for effective management.   Since planning and forecasting are like touch light used in darkness.   We also believed that business dowel in the world of gravism and unsteadying setting, which called for effective use of planning and forecasting, it can also be seen as an eye of every business that wants to grow in as competitive environment.
          Even the Bible says, “Where there is no vision, people perish” in this context vision, which is sight in modern business management, is planning and forecasting.
          Moreover Hosea 4 : 6 said “my people perish for lack of knowledge” likewise, many business collapses because of inadequate knowledge of planning and forecasting.   It is because of these present problems and eminent problems, which many businesses are encounter and also will encounter in future that make the researcher to bring out the topic title “Planning and Forecasting in Business Organisation”.   From the light of the above, it is approved that for a society to progress is to embrace planning and forecasting.
PETER ORUMKER said that “planning and forecasting, which is aspect of management is doing not knowing” therefore, we should know that planning must be practicalized not nursing or desire in the heart it is a thing of paramount importance to see that problems or courses of liquidation of many business is as a result of lack of adequate planning and forecasting.   Moreover this project necessitate a result that few people and some oranisation that recognized the roles of planning and forecasting.   They do it any how, without knowing that planning is “QUEEN MOTHER” of all the management and if it fails what/how then will you direct, organize, control, staff and budget it to and so on.
This issue of poor attitude and low understanding of the role or meaning and importance of twin brother planning and forecasting makes business not to grow well, tack more of progressing.  And if any one will progress at all, without planning, it will be by trial and error or miracle working or simply put just by chance or luck, but planning of business is a well programme oriented profit venture or business.    
In attempt to plan, as many think, they do only half bake planning which is as good as not planning at all.   In which most of their planning is found wanting because it lakes the basic elements of planning.
PLANNING PROCESS
          All those challenges put together, the researcher to found how many are you write on this topic to review and resurrects a deal and sick business organization by the power of wonderful role of inseparable twin brothers which is planning and forecasting, sine planning and forecasting is queen mother of all management function and if it fails what or who and how will one (business manager) direct control budget.   Staff and so on and so fort.   It is nothing rather than to co-ordinate failure and share.  Management today, believes in management by objectives (M.B.O).   This project will also have it subjective to draw the problem nearer how and to expose the thought obviously.
1.4       THE PROBLEM THE STUDY WILL BE CONCERNED WITH:
The problems planning and forecasting encounter in an organization effects its productivity.  Over the years business organization has tried a lot to eradicate these problems that sometimes engulf managerial progress in Eastern Shop Nigeria Limited Ogui Road Enugu.  
The problems are stated thus:
1)           To know planning and forecasting in EASTERN SHOP LTD carryout their tasks.
2)           To know both the internal and external affairs of the company.
3)           Whether the problems are caused as a result of poor motivation.
4)           What other variables could explain why the problems have not been eradicated?
5)           To know whether the working environment is conductive for planning and forecasting.
These problems also attached itself with the research question and we will use the same opportunity to discuss the research questions.
 RESEARCH QUESTION
          Why is planning and forecasting needed in an organization.   What impact can it create in progress of business does planning and forecasting has any theoretical backups and background?
Can we ready do without planning and forecasting?
What makes planning and forecasting organic function of management? Is information an effective tore fore planning and forecasting in business organization?
 1.5       THE IMPORTANCE OF THE STUDY
Having known that planning is organic function of management it brings much good to business in various ways.   All business organization both those that have arrived and get to arrive will benefit from these topic, if well utilized especially in areas of pricing, quantify, manpower, money, capital control and so on.
This study is meant to examine the problem of planning and forecasting in a business organization.   It will examine the role, which mangers try to implement by using planning and forecasting to achieve effective and society at large.
The research will also find solution to some of the problems mangers encounter by implementing planning and forecasting in their day-to-day activities. However, the importance of the research to management of any organization, both profit and non-profit organizations, students both graduate and undergraduate will not be over emphasized.
Family will also benefit from it, since management is done by all and planning is first born and major aspect of management.  Government agency and parastatals will also benefit form this topic by applying knowledge of planning and forecasting in service of civil servant, politicians manifest ideology.
Generally, everybody or anybody and all that want to survive in these ever dynamic business world must learnt to plan and forecast in these perilous or risk evil days of ours. 
DEFINITION OF IMPORTANT  TERMS
MANAGEMENT:   This is the application of human and material resources in achieving the objective of an organisation effectively and efficiently through planning and forecasting.
MANAGER:   This is a person that makes use of the material and human resources of an organisation in achieving the objectives.
PLANNING:  It is the act or process of making plan, planning is a major component of the management process which is concerned with defining ends means and conduct at every level of organisation life.  
FORECASTING:   To say what one think will happen in the future base on information that he has now
ORGANISATION:   It is a system of behaviour designed to enable humans and the machines accomplished goals.    Organisation is also defined as the sum total of the ways in which it divides the labour distinct tasks and their achieves co-ordination between them.
BUSINESS:  This is only economic activity oriented towards producing goods and services at a profit for the satisfaction of mankind.