This work provides empirical evidence on the effect pension reforms have on the Nigerian capital market. Using data spanning 2004-2014 and a five variable model, market capitalization was regressed on total pension assets, number of workers registered on pension scheme, GDP per capita, and turnover ratio. Total pension assets and number of workers registered on pension scheme were employed as proxies for pension reform. Results from the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimation as well as the estimation of the Error Correction Model (ECM) show that growing total pension assets and number of workers registered on pension scheme (as a result of pension reforms) both have positive impact on stock market performance and development. However, these positive impacts were found to be insignificant. The relatively young nature of the reforms, poor implementation, and low compliance from Nigerian workers are reasons that most probably explains the insignificance of the positive effect of the pension reform on capital market development in Nigeria. Thus, it was recommended that the regulatory capacity and technical competence of PENCOM as the apex regulatory body of the Nigerian pension sector should be enhanced, compliance rates should be improved as well as providing a good range of investible assets on the Nigerian stock market to promote investment of pension assets on the capital market.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 5
1.1 Background of the Study 5
1.2 Statement of the Problem 9
1.3 Objectives of the Study 12
1.4 Research Hypothesis 13
1.5 Significance of the Study 13
1.6 Methodology of the Study 14
1.7 Limitations of the Study 15
1.8 Organisation of the Study 15
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW 16
2.1 Concept of Pension Reform and Economic Growth 16
2.1.2 Objectives of Pension Reforms 18
2.2 An Overview on Pension and Pension Reforms: Theoretical Framework 19
2.2.1 Types of Pension Reforms 21
2.2.2 An Overview of the Nigerian Capital Market 23
2.3 The Pension- Capital Market Relation: Specific Channels of Linkage and Empirical Literature 26
2.3.1 Specific Channels Through which Pension Reforms Affect Capital Market 27
2.3.2 Empirical Literature on the Pension-Capital Market Nexus 28
2.3.3 Nigerian-Specific Empirical Evidence 31
2.4 Pension Reforms in Nigeria 33
2.4.1 Pension Administration in Nigeria Prior to the 2004 Reform 34
2.4.2 The Pension Reform of 2004 37
2.4.3 An Appraisal of the Achievements of the 2004 Pension Reform Objectives in Nigeria: Successes and Challenges 41
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND MODEL SPECIFICATION 44
3.1 Introduction 44
3.2 Theoretical Framework 44
3.3 Analytical Framework: Model Formulation 46
3.4 Method of Data Analysis 47
3.5 Data Sources 48
CHAPTER FOUR: PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESULTS 49
4.1 Introduction 49
4.2 Empirical Results and Analysis 49
4.2.1 Augmented Dickey Fuller Unit Root Test 49
4.2.2 Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Estimation Results 50
4.2.3 Error Correction Model 53
4.3 Evaluation Of Working Hypotheses 56
4.4 Discussion of Findings And Policy Implications 57
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS, RECOMMENDSTIONS AND
CONCLUSION 59
5.1 Summary of Findings 59
5.2 Policy Recommendations 59
5.3 Conclusion 61
Bibliography 62
Appendix I: Data for Regression 67
Appendix II: Regression Results 78
