STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS
(A CASE IN ENUGU STATE FROM 1993 TO 2000)
ABSTRACT
This project is in compliance with one of the task, I have to shoulder in order to be awarded the Higher National Diploma Certificate in statistics department from Institute of Management and Technology, Enugu, during my final year in the Polytechnic 2004/2005 session  emphasizing on Statistical Analysis of Road Accident in Enugu from 1993 to 2000.
Road accident has been of great social and economic concern.  It has became a total topic for scientific investigation.  The number of deaths on the road today, particularly on the major roads of rural-urban areas are what motivated me in writing this project.
This study is essentially based on the Statistical Analysis of Road Accidents recorded in Enugu rural-urban roads from 1993 to 2000 with the objectives to; identify the causes of road accidents in Enugu and compare the attendant fatalities/deaths, ascertain whether the causes of road accidents are unrelated with vehicles, establish the trend of road accident over the years, investigate, whether there is any seasoned pattern of occurrence of road accident and trend and/or investigate whether there is any seasonal pattern of the attendant deaths and trend, and recommend methods or ways of reducing road accidents to the Enugu State government, the institutions concerned with traffic management and enforcement of the laws within the geo-political entity and the road users, and the federation in general.
The project work is divided into five chapters.  Chapter one gives the introduction, socio-economic effects of road accidents, aims and objectives, scope and limitation, significance of the study, sources of data and the problems of the data collection.  Chapter two covers the literature review.  Chapter three is concerned with the methodology.  Chapter four deals with the data presentation and analysis.  Finally, chapter five covers the findings, conclusion and recommendation on the way forward.
TABLE OF CONTNETS
CHAPTER ONE
1.0       INTRODUCTION    
1.1       SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS           
1.2       AIMS AND OBJECTIVES  
1.3       SCOPE AND LIMITATION           
1.4       SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
1.5       SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION       
1.6       PROBLEMS OF DATA COLLECT
CHAPTER TWO
2.0       LITERATURE REVIEW     
CHAPTER THREE
3.0       METHODOLOY      
3.1       CHI-SQUARE TEST OF INDEPENDENCE         
3.2              ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE (ANOVA) TWO-WAY
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE          
3.3       METHOD OF LEAST SQUARE     
CHAPTER FOUR
4.0       DATA PRESENTATION AND ANALYSIS                     
4.1       ANALYSIS OF DATA IN TABLE 4
4.2       ANALYSIS OF DATA IN TABLE 5
4.3              INVESTIGATION OF SEASONAL PATTERN OF
OCCURENCE OF ROAD ACCIDENT & TREND                       
4.4       ANALYSIS OF DATA IN TABLE 6          
4.5       INVESTIGATION OF SEASONAL PATTERN OF
OCCURRENCE OF DEATHS OF THE RTA & TREND
4.6       ANALYSIS OF DATA IN TABLE 7          
4.7              PRESENTATION OF THE RTA IN ENUGU STATE
ON A HISTROGRAM         
CHAPTER FIVE                                                                
5.0              FINDINGS AND CONCLUSION
5.1       RECOMMENDATION
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE 1:       CONTINGENCY TABLE
TABLE 2:       TWO-WAY ANOVA TABLE
TABLE 3:       TWO-WAY ANOVA (CROSS EFFECT) TABLE
TABLE 4:       NUMBER OF ROAD ACCIDENT BY CAUSES AND TYPE OF VEHICLE (1993 – 2000)
TABLE 5:       ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENT DATA ACCIDDENT DATA (1993 – 2000)
TABLE 6:       ROAD TRAFFIC DEATH RECORD (1993 – 2000)
TABLE 7:       TOTAL NUMBER OF ACCIDENT IN ENUGU (1993 – 2000)
CHAPTER ONE
1.0              INTRODUCTION
In the world today, transportation which is the conveyance of goods and passengers from one phase to another or the movement of commuter and their goods, produce and products, and/or they themselves from one location to another have played an important role in the development process, thus, serving as one of the aspects of developmental change indicators and structural well-being of the society and government among other sectors or areas of the world socio-economic development.  It provides room not only for transaction of business to take place, market possibility for our goods, produce and products produced, but also makes it possible for such to reach the find consumer(s).
For instance, in Costa Rica, before the inter America – highway was constructed, driving beed cattle on the hoof from grazing lands to San Jose often resulted in a 40 percent less of weight, and imports were necessary to supply local needs.  But with and weather highway, it was possible to deliver truck-traider units of cattle over night, and costs Rica become self-supporting in meet.  Also in Bolivia, the highway from cochabamba to santa cruz reduced the travel time in the rainy season from several weeks to fifteen hours and provided a link between the country’s food supplies and its people.  Until then the price of home-grown rice was 50 percent higher than the imported rice because of the high cost of transport.  Furthermore, transportation as an integral part of national production and distribution system calls for its development, improvement and better network system as to necessitate or provide a means of servicing domestic and international market.
 This is of primary importance in the early stages of economic development because it promotes an accumulation of capital, which allows the economy to progress from the subsistence level at which most production is consumed locally.  Therefore, transportation and other government programmes such as education and health care, necessarily compete for public expenditures particularly in the underdeveloped countries.
From the foregoing, the developed nation are efficient and effective in transport business as a result of their improvement and technological advancement over the years.
Nigeria has one of the most modern and best development transport systems – roil, road, air and in-land waterings which transverse the length and breath of the country to link the industrial, commercial, and agricultural centers, that is to say, transportation in Nigeria is traditionally under four major mades namely;- road, rail, water and air.  However, in this study, the researcher zeros down to road transport.
In Nigeria road network, roads are categorized into three; the truck A roads which is the responsibility of the federal Government, truck B roads which is the responsibility of the state Government and the third category-truck C which is the responsibility of the local Government.  Whether truck A, truck B, and truck C roads, these roads are used by the motorists, cyclists, pedestrians either to convey their passengers, goods, produce, products or to reach, transact and communicate with another n different destination.  Road transportation has not only been discovered as the cheapest means of transportation but also provides door-to-door transport services and delivery of goods.
 But apart from road congestion which is symptom of the availability of insufficient road space to satisfy, with but difficulty, all demands made upon it, road accident is another difficulty task in traffic management schemes and has been of much concern to various governments of our timer hence, the concern of any well-organised government is how to identify and minimize (if possible curb) the high rate of accidents on our roads today.
 We are aware of the number of deaths on the highway being recorded these days.  This places a question mark on the value we attach to human life and property.  It is clear on the basis of logic backed by observations that certain people have worse accident records than others.  This research will investigate why it is so and would also proffer suggestions to check the ugly trends people who drive recklessly or dangerously are potential victims of accidents and are prone to such conditions.  They also constitute a nuisance to the society.
Most accidents have been caused by a whole lot of actors.  Prominent among them are as listed below:   
1.         Over-Speeding:          Some times may be due to greediness or the tendency to drive as many turn as possible always want to be at the head of others, without considering the consequences.  By so doing they neglect road signs warnings and road traffic regulations and laws.  Thus, the risk of some dangerous.
2.         Drugs/Alcohol:          The side effects of drugs or alcohol our body cannot be over emphasized.  These cause drowsiness and finally sleep when during.  They lead to wrong calculations and loss of regard to lvies of human beings and property of such driver concerned.  Some causes excessive alertness and nervousness, loss of control and finally a breakdown of the body system of such person involved.
3.         Roads (Road Accidents Immuned Delusion Syndrome):  Some drivers because they have driven a particular vehicle for years, taxy develop the feeling that they have overmastered the vehicle and also fully experienced do believe that they cannot be involved in road traffic accident, others or other drivers because of their belief either a shrine, ring, talisman, etc. do believe that they cannot be involved and/or die in road accident, they drive without regard to road traffic regulations and other road users.
4.         The Road:      The construction of the road matters a lot.  Roads with multiple bands experience many accidents.  Poorly constructed road witness many accidents e.g. presence of informal bymps, very narrow roads.  Roads that are poorly maintained cause a lot of accidents.  The absence of road signs also contributes to road accidents e.g to show construction sites, narrow bridges, cross roads, bumps, “T” junction etc.
5.         Negligence of road Signs:     Most Nigeria drivers are so illiterate that they cannot read road signs and as such endanger their lives and the lives of others and property.
6.         Aggression:    This is psychological.  Also result of or may be due to lack of sleep in the previous night due to one problem or the other.  The driver then wake up annoyed and aggressive.  He jumps into the vehicle without the morning drills, quarrels with the vehicle passengers, co-drivers and road traffic officers etc. thus the risk of accident victimized and even others.   
7.         The Weather:            This comprises the rain and the sun and their effects on the roads.  The rains wet the roads and make them slippery therefore, tyres treads loase grip of the roads and render braking almost impossible as and when desired.  The sun heats up the tar on the road which in tam heats up the tyres.  When this happens, weak tyres tends to burst very easily.  Both conditions causes accidents on our road if not observed.
8.         Topography:  This includes hilly, rocky forest and savanna areas.  Areas where the roads run in between hills particularly with dedling rock constitute a lot danger to road users.  Where such exits, viewing distance are shortened, the rocks can fall into the road at any time and cause accidents.  Likewise where roads run across forests, trees, and/or their branches, many fall into the road and where this is not noticed in a good time, they can cause serious accidents.  Animal shiving is the forests can cross the roads at any time while grazing animals common in the savanna requires can also  cause accidents.
9.         Carelessness of Pedestrians: The other road user that is seen as the commonest – the pedestrian(s) may out of illiteracy and inexperience in using the road disobey the road traffic sign by crossing when it is not due for him or her to do so.  Or cross the busy road without looking left or tight as to see when the road is free for crossing.
10.       Foods: It takes many drivers time to understand the effect of some foods on their body.  Most eat one type of food because others do.  They fail to understand that, while some people or such people will be active after a heavy food, others or themselves imitating feel dull and will be sleeping after such a heavy food and thus, endangering their lives and property while driving.
1.1       SOCIO-ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF ROAD ACCIDENTS
Several aspects of road transport negative impact (road accident) on the society have already been discussed.  Some additional negative effects deserve mention.  Road accidents have significant effects, which they impact.  Adversely on the economic and social welfare of a nation.  The effects on the economy usually take the form of costs which under certain circumstance can be measured.  Some of these costs; private costs are borne by those responsible for the accident, while others are social in nature in that society as a whole bears them.  In this section, the study examines specific effects of road accidents.
1.         Traffic hold-up and associated waste:        When an accident occurs, the most easily observed effect is a rapidly built-up traffic holdup.  In the process, fuel is wasted, engines are overheated, delays lead to lost business and social opportunities.  The direct effect is a showed down and more expansive business transactions.
2.         Destruction of motor vehicle:           Road accidents usually entail the complete destruction of motor vehicle involved.  In some cases, the vehicles are salvaged at considerable cost to owners.  In Nigerian environment, accidental vehicles are either left on the scene of accidents indefinitely or are towed away to police stations where they are similarly abandoned.  The implication of this practice is that scrap value of such vehicle is lot to the economy and stock of transportation, facilities necessary to move people and goods from place to place is reduced.  The opportunities for realizing gains from within an integrated economic systems are lost, and the welfare of citizen earlier mentioned corresponding reduced.  Loss to the economy arising from road accidents is easily measurable.
3.         Destruction of transport infrastructure:     Accidents destroy valuable road transport infrastructure whose replacement would cost multiples of the original capital expenditure.  These costs are significantly foreign exchange are imported.  Components of transport infrastructure that may be damaged include;
i.                    Roads
ii.                  Bridges
iii.                Culverts etc
Thus, resulting to capital reduction instead of capital accumulation.
4.   Destruction of other infrastructure:            Road accidents also destroy other infrastructure such as telecommunication poles and wires, electricity poles and transformers, real estate including residential and office buildings.  Damage to these infrastructure disrupt electricity supply, telecommunications services and normal office facilities; all these tend to show down normal economic and social transactions with adverse consequences on the quality of life.
5.   Short supply of goods:          Accidents cause the damage or destruction of goods being transported.  The loss reduces total quantity of goods available for consumption by the final consumer(s) and reduces profits for or made by the companies whose goods are destroy.  Where insurance cover is provided, cost of damage are passed on the insurance companies thus, reducing their capital gain if the goods are essential for normal subsistence, large scale destruction may necessitate importation which would either place a downward pressure on foreign exchange rates or lead to substantial devaluation of the exchange rate in a system of  flexible exchange rates.
6.   Medical bills for treating accident victims:       Medical bills of accident victims are some of the adverse effect of road accidents.  Treatment in the orthopedic hospitals is time-consuming and expensive, after discharge of patients, the ability of such a person to perform duties is usually reduced.  This has adverse effect on production in the economy.
1.2              AIMS AND OBJECTIVES
The main objectives of this project are to;
1.                  Identify the causes of road accident in Enugu and compare the attendant fatalities/deaths.
2.                  Ascertain whether the causes of road accident are unrelated with vehicles.
3.                  Investigate whether there is any seasonal pattern of occurrence of road accidents and trend and/or compare the number of cases.
4.                  Establish the trend of road accident over the years.
5.                  Recommend methods or ways of reducing road accidents to the Enugu State Government, the institutions concerned for traffic management and enforcement of the laws within the geo-political entity and the road users.
1.3              SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
This study would help the government, the general public, the Nigerian Police Force, the Federal Road Safety Commission and other agencies concerned with safety on our roads in the following ways:
1.                  It will help the Federal Road Safety Commission and other authorities concerned with similar assignment to assess their performance over the years.
2.                  It will help the Federal and state governments particularly Enugu State to articulate policies on road transportation and safety, such policies will form the basis of planning the socio-economic infrastructure necessary to ensure safety and enhance the performance of road users.
3.                  it will help the Federal Road, Safety Commission and other institutions concerned organizing sensitization workshop on seminars programmes for road users ascertain the positive impact of such workshop or seminar being organized.
4.                  It will awaken the sense of responsibility of road users and government.
5.                  It will help reduce or put to a stop the ill attitude poster by some of the law enforcement agencies (the Nigerian Police N20 syndrome) hindering the reduction of road accident.
1.4              SOURCES OF DATA COLLECTION
The data used for this project work were collected internally in secondary form.  Secondary data imply statistical materials or information not originated or obtained by the investigator himself, but obtain from someone’s record or published source such as the central bank, government agencies and non-governmental duties such as universities, research institutes etc.  The data were however, provided by Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) Enugu Division and the Federal Road Safety Commission, Enugu Sector Command.
1.5              PROBLEMS OF THE DATA COLLECTION
The problems encountered during collection of data cannot all be stated here.  This research work posed a lot of problems.  Since the researcher did not originally collect the data, there was mistrust between the primary users and the secondary user of the data.  It took me a lot of money, time and energy traveling from my destination to the office of the Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) and that of the Federal Road Safety Commission all in Enugu, so as to get the relevant data for this research work.  This made me to miss most of my lecture hours and also disappointed my supervisor Mr. Pius Ugwu by not coming when I promised to see him several times.
It was very difficult to collect the relevant data from these offices because they said that they couldn’t release the data for security reasons.  But after presenting letters from my Department Head Mr. Nwagbara G.P. dated 4th July, 2005, the desired information was given to me.